What an interesting time to be in Uganda. Things are heating up. Last week riots broke out in Kampala. On the surface, the instability appears linked to the fact that the King of Buganda, the Kabaka as he is called here, is being perceived by the president as challenging the power of the presidency.
But it's far more complicated and multi-layered.
It all started when the Kabaka tried to visit one of the disputed districts of his kingdom, Kayunga District. Kayunga was given to the Buganda kingdom as a "thank you" from the current president for the king's help when the president was a rebel leader trying to take over the government (which he did successfully). But not everyone in Kayunga wants to be part of the Buganda kingdom and some of the Kayunga folks protested his proposed arrival. But then those people who did want him to come fought back with a small riot in Kayunga.
But nothing ends with a small riot in Uganda.
The president sent extra police to maintain calm and prevent the preparations for the king's arrival citing "instability". This action, however, was viewed as being anti-Kabaka, which actually was partially true (that is a much bigger story that I won't get into). This got Buganda folks very upset, and Kampala is in the heart of Buganda territory. Buganda MPs walked out of parliament demanding an explanation from the president for his anti-Kabaka stance. Then things just exploded, and massive riots broke out all over Kampala and the surrounding areas.
If this sounds confusing, it's because the issue is complex. It's not just an issue of the Kabaka going to Kayunga. That was the trigger. What this did was give all the unemployed (I think the last number I saw was something like 50% of population is unemployed), particularly the youth, something to rally behind in order to express their frustration with the government's refusal to take meaningful measures to provide for the average Ugandan.
How are these things linked? The government spends tons of money on security, and most of the top military folks are from the president's home town (and were former rebels who helped him get into power). As well, all the top paid non-security positions in Uganda are held by people related to the president or his wife.
People are tired of the corruption. Uganda is the 3rd most corrupt government in the world. Uganda is rich compared to most countries in East Africa yet people are starving. People are angry. Mix in territorial and power struggles (i.e. should the monarchy be involved in politics, etc.) and a coming election, and you have more than enough ingredients to create a great deal of instability.
He didn't say so, but I am pretty sure the riots and the sudden mobilization of thousands of people scared the president. It should have at least. This is just a small taste of what is to come if he doesn't act appropriately.
The next election is in 2011. The last few have been marred with allegations of vote-rigging and corruption, yet the president has refused to take meaningful steps to meet international standards to ensure a free and fair election, despite saying he wants "free and fair elections." Ironically he also said he wouldn't be ready to step down until 2025 – did that mean he wouldn't step down even if voted out? No one knows.
What this does mean is that things are going to be pretty crazy in Uganda in the next year and half. My fear is that if people aren't supported before 2011, if people remain starving, unemployed and burdened with the psychosocial issues and trauma from the various wars, things are going to be very, very ugly here.
And the ones who will be the most violent will be the youth.
My own research in the north has come to the same conclusion – if youth aren't supported soon, they are going to be ready to challenge the government with whatever they've got.
I really hope the government listens this time. Uganda doesn't need more violence.